All Eyes on the Supreme Court
Depending on who you ask, the Supreme Court's ruling on healthcare reform might come as early as today or as late as next Friday. According to a recent American Action Forum (AAF) survey, 25% of legal insiders think the decision will be released on Monday, while 21% think it will be released on Tuesday or Wednesday, and 27% think it be released on Thursday. Sixteen percent of the respondents in the survey think the decision will not be announced until next Friday at the earliest.
Perhaps more importantly, however, is that most experts now feel that the court will strike down the individual mandate. On average, legal insiders in the AAF survey thought:
- The probability that the court would strike down the mandate was 57%, up from 35% in March;
- There is a 79% chance that the individual mandate is partially or fully severable, slightly up from 74% in March; and
- There is a 22% chance the Medicaid expansion in the overhaul will be ruled unconstitutional, slightly up from a 19% chance in March.
So what does all of this mean for the healthcare design community? Well, given that the average healthcare design project is a long-tail process, the short-term effects are practically nil here. But hopefully, the decision will lead to some sort of closure on the whole matter and lead to a generaly shaking loose of purse strings and greenlighting of new projects again, as the new healthcare reality will at least be somewhat better defined. Even so, I can't imagine the amount of projects really ramping up until at least a year later.
But what do you think? Will the Supreme Court decision have an effect on healthcare construction in the short- or long-term future? How do you expect the court to rule? How will all of this affect the way healthcare buildings are actually designed? Weigh in below with your thoughts, or send me an email by clicking here.